A 1 in 70,368,744,177,664 chance of us.

[TX_101]

WARNING: This post has been classified as "Fairly Pointless".
You have been warned.

As anyone with even the most basic knowledge of genetics will know, we as humans have 23 pairs of chromosomes that make up our DNA. These chromosomes contain the genetic code within them that hold all of the instructions used in making us who we are - everything from superficial details such as the colour of our eyes to the overall shape of our bodies is determined by the contents of those 46 chromosomes.

Now, when we humans reproduce, we pass on one chromosome out of each pair onto our offspring, so 23 of a child's chromosomes come from the father and 23 come from the mother. In this way the child gets all 46 chromosomes that make up the 23 pairs that form his/her DNA.

Now, on to the mathmatics.

If, from each parent, the chromosome that is passed on from each pair is chosen at random (which it is), then that means there is 2^23 (2 to-the-power-of 23) possibilities of chromosomes from each parent.

i.e., for the not so mathmatically-minded, there are

8,388,608 (eight million, three hundred and eighty-eight thousand, six hundred and eight)

different possibilities of chromosomes from one parent.

Now, to get the amount of possible combinations of chromosomes from both parents, all we have to do is multiply the amount of possible combinations from one parent by itself.

i.e.

2^23 x 2^23

which is the same as:

2^46

which, in standard decimal format, is:

70,368,744,177,664

So that means that there is:

Seventy-trillion, three hundred sixty-eight billion, seven hundred forty-four million, one hundred seventy-seven thousand, six hundred and sixty-four different possible combinations of chromosomes.

This means that in effect, there was only a 1 in 70,368,744,177,664 chance that it was you that was born when your parents had a baby.

Kinda makes you feel special, doesn't it ?

[captain canuck]

warm amd fuzzy, while at the same time confused.
it's like i won a really awesome lottery, and my luck hasn't recovered since.

[moovok]

Indeed, I'm quite glad at those odds. Maybe I should shove a ticket on the lottery, if I can be born, I must be one lucky individual :D hehe

[Cynic]

If you rolled 100 dice at once it'd be very unlikely that all of them came up reading 6.

However, they'd have to read something, no matter how unlikely. It's unlikely the dice will fall that way, but they do have to fall.

[Yorkshire Tea]

But the whole point is that you are who you are, and you wouldn't know that you could be anything else if you weren't you, and instead you were someone else.

/asplodes

[captain canuck]

mathematics and existentialist thinking. now that's entertainment.

[Cynic]

But is it unlikely? Or do you just think it unlikely? It's just impressive because you perceive it that way?

[Emillilly]

I like that!! i feel very special. I never really thought of life that way.
Awwwwww! Bless ya for thinking all about that.

[TX_101]

But is it unlikely? Or do you just think it unlikely? It's just impressive because you perceive it that way?
Hard to say, depends on whether you're a believer in freewill/coincidence or fate.

But yes, I think that it is impressive.

[RobW]

70,368,744,177,664 different possible combinations of chromosones yet Patrick Moore is actually Tupac.

[Mat^]

My knowledge of genetics would have me belive that it's only be your adelles that would change...

So... you'd still be you, just rather... different looking.

[The Visioneer]

It would seem your knowledge of genetics is lacking mat :p
I think you mean alleles

[Mat^]

Eh, I'm gcse, we only scratch the surface :p

And what's with all the good spelling being needed? :D

[monhay]

I'm a twin, I cheat the system...

GO ME!

[Nicodemus]

I've actually pondered this before. Not only that, but the at the time of conception, the father has released around 50 million individual sperm, each carrying 1 of 8,388,608 different possible combinations. Also, a girl is born with a few million eggs and that number diminishes to about 400,000 at puberty (even though a few hundred are ever actually released, we are talking about possibilities) each with it's own possibility of 1 of 8,388,608 different combinations. So while number of possible combinations remains the same, the odds of the one particular sperm joining that one particular egg are almost infinitesimal. If someone would like to calculate the odds of one particular sperm joining with one particular egg, I'd be interested to see what they are (though not interested enough to figure it out myself, plus I'd probably just calculate it wrong).

My point is pretty much the same as TX_101's. It really is amazing that you even exist as you do. That you are you. The same partents, the same sexual encounter but ANYTHING else different and you wouldn't be you. Really makes you very aware of your mortality and existence.

And Mat, think about what you just said. If that were true, your siblings would be you, just look different. But they're not. Hell, not even twins are exactly alike in personality, even if they're identical. :eng101:

[Phishes]

I heard somewhere that if you are left handed then you had a twin in the womb, but it died before it was properly formed. Or something.

I am left handed.

o.O

[Mat^]

And Mat, think about what you just said. If that were true, your siblings would be you, just look different. But they're not. Hell, not even twins are exactly alike in personality, even if they're identical. :eng101:My siblings have a different mother, that could explain that :p

I'm more of one for the "experiences shaping your personallity" rather than genetics way of thinking, it scares me that people can have "murderer" or "child molester" pre-written in their heads.

[Nicodemus]

I believe that there are definite predispositions, but good environments can overrule them. I mean, take two kids and put them in the same evironment. One can be a serial killer and the other a social worker. It's more than just environment, although I think it does play a big part. I believe it's a combination of the two.

And again, look at siblings. Brought up all their childhoods in the same house, they can still be completely opposite from each other. My two half-sisters are a prime example, lol.

[maw3193]

My life is simple proof of nurture over nature, my twin brother, identical, I'm the sinister (left-handed) one. My brother isn't the same as me, apparrently I'm the 'cooler' one. meh, whatever.

[Stringy Pete]

Am I meant to say thankyou to some omnipotent being for this outcome?

"THANKS!"

I'm here, don't care about the probability, so the other 50 gajillion possible outcomes that didn't happen can stick it up their behinds! HAHAHAHA!


This post was brought to you by the letter: 'Stella Artois', and the numbers: 'Alchohol' and 'Drunk'

Please note, a sober addition to the thread, and quite possibly an apology to this post, may or may not be on the way in the morning

[Paradigm^]

Without meaning to be a killjoy I think if you try and look too deeply into the statistics of things it's easy to be bedazzled by the big numbers and think they're special.

OH LOOK ALL THE AIR PARTICLES ARE THIS WAY IN THIS ROOM! And? So what? They're there. As Cynic said, the dice had to fall. The fact that that particular sequence was rolled is as stastistically (in)significant as any of the other sequences. So, essentially, it means nothing.

Wow, you are SO SPECIAL! Yeah, but there's another 6.4billion people on the planet too love. Chances are you can't even think beyond a few hundred without them turning into a meaningless blur.

I find it more sobering to think I'm not special; just one of many. I am just a roll of the dice, and if it hadn't been me, it'd have been someone else. I don't think you can really say "that was lucky" because, looking at the flipside, you couldn't say something that didn't exist was therefore unlucky. You can't assign a concept of luck to something nonexistent!

Having said that...now I'm here, I might as well make the most of it.

[Nicodemus]

Of course it's ultimately meaningless to look into the vastness of the odds, SarChasm. That's not the point. The point is to just take a look at it for a second and go, "Wow, that's kind of amazing." And then move on. No one said there had to be anything come of it, or anything productive from it. It's just something to muse about. Nothing wrong with that, is there?

[Paradigm^]

There is everything wrong with musing about things, it's unproductive. GET BACK TO WORK, THE ECONOMY NEEDS YOU!

:p

[_pinky_]

I knew I was special! but now it's been confirmed! :D

[Tweekish]

If there is such a small chance of us turning out like we did, how come you can meet people who look so much like other people?

Let me explain - look-a-likes. How come?

[Paradigm^]

Another random stat for you: There are 5 or 6 other people in the world who have exactly the same DNA as you. They are, effectively, your clones. This is due to the fact that the potential for difference in the human genome is actually quite limited - start changing the wrong bits of DNA and you'll probably end up with flippers or something.

Now, if you consider that lookalikes are just people who look similar to you...well, all that means is that the sum total of their genes relating to their physical features is near yours. Indeed, they could have a completely different combination, as there is more than one gene that determines eye colour (random example).

What is it again? 96.4% of our DNA is shared with chimpanzees? OK, believable - they're simian, and they look like us (to some extent). How about this then: You share 90% of your DNA with a slug.

[esquilax]

And 50% with a banana

[CoX]

We're doing this in my Science lessons at the moment, and this should make for an interesting fact.

70,368,744,177,664 - i've got to memorise that number.

[nightyamaha]

I heard somewhere that if you are left handed then you had a twin in the womb, but it died before it was properly formed. Or something.

I am left handed.

o.O

Being left handed is just an elite alternative to being right handed, nothing to do with twins in the womb or anything.

[Dude]

So if I got someone pregnent would the kid be different if i did it doggy style as aposed to missionary if it was in like, a parellel universe and it was happening at the exact same time?

[TX_101]

So if I got someone pregnent would the kid be different if i did it doggy style as aposed to missionary if it was in like, a parellel universe and it was happening at the exact same time?
Probably, as a different sperm would make it to the egg.

[crab]

I heard somewhere that if you are left handed then you had a twin in the womb, but it died before it was properly formed. Or something.

I am left handed.

What a load of donkey expletives.

Your handedness tends to be defined by circumstance and the size of a bit of your brain I'm not going to get off my fat arse to look up in new scientist.

Think about it: if all lefties (around 10-12% lefties, of which 2-3% are strong-handed lefties) had a twin dying in the womb, you would notice the miscarriages every time a left-hander was born.

[edit] more interesting question: If you perfectly recreate the situation, and have them do it missionary and doggy style, what are the chances of the same one making it to the egg?

Also: If it was a (promiscuous) bisexual and lesbian woman, what are the odds that the bisexual (who has just had unprotected sex, as she is on the pill/has a coil/etcetera) could pass on semen deep enough to impregnate the lesbian?

'Cause, like, my friend says he heard it was on a TV show once from someone who forgot to tape it, but I think it's bs.

[Nicodemus]

Sperm die relatively quickly, though if they have the right environment, they can live for some time.

However, once deposited, they head for the fallopian tubes, meaning they're headed past the cervix. Once through, they can't come back. If she's got something blocking the opening of the cervix, one of two things happen. Either 1) she's got a sponge or diaphragm in which contains spermacide, killing the sperm that come into contact with it (:(), or the sperm just beat their little heads against the block until they die (again, :().

Now, all that being said, the woman who had the semen deposited in her would have to have vagina-to-vagina contanct (obviously) with the lesbian within minutes of having sex with the man. Any sperm that are close enough to the exterior of the vagina to be transferred to the new woman would likely be dead or near death. And of course, the "plumbing" being the way it is, there'd be no way for a woman to deposit the sperm deep enough in another woman's vagina for there to be much of a chance of fertilization. Now, the story changes a bit if the man pulled out and simply ejaculated on the woman's vulva. Then, possibility increases quite a bit, but is still quite small.

I wouldn't say it's TOTAL BS, but I'd say it's HIGHLY unlikely.

/me laughs at being told to get back to work by the guy who took a picture of himself in the loo at work. :D

[Dyakson]

Well, no-one could say that identical twins are just two copies of the same person (or copies of each other, or both the same person, or however you like to phrase it).

I suppose this topic hinges on the concept of soul, spirit, or whatever - some
supernatural element to a human being that isn't composed of matter in the four-dimensional universe. I believe that we're not just biological computer/robot assemblies; rather, I'm composed of a material body and a supernatural soul/spirit/whatever. The body (which is determined by genetics) can influence who you really are, in the same way that the way you drive is different if you're in a Mazda MX-5 or a Volkswagen Combi-van, but it doesn't define who you are.

That sounds like the sort of garbage you see stuck to shop doors in Whitby or Glastonbury, really... I should perhaps take English lessons and improve my composition skills!

[Hydralisk]

...and to cheer up the thread a notch, you are more likely to get hit by lightning twice in a few minutes than you are to win the lottery!